The No. 10 LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) head to Nashville for a ranked SEC showdown against the No. 17 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-1, 1-1 SEC) on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Commodores are coming off a bye week following their first loss of the season at Alabama, a 34-20 setback that has left them hungry for redemption. LSU, meanwhile, is looking to keep momentum after a 20-10 win over South Carolina in Baton Rouge last week.
Below, we’ll break down our LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction and the top PrizePicks college football player picks for this key SEC matchup to kickoff Week 8 of college football.
These two programs rarely meet when both are ranked — in fact, this marks just the fourth time in series history it’s happened, and the first since 1947. LSU has dominated the matchup historically, winning 10 straight games against Vanderbilt. But the Commodores are no longer an easy out with QB Diego Pavia on the other sideline, who ranks ninth overall in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and third in success rate among all QBs.
Let's get into our LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview, and player picks for PrizePicks.
LSU vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Preview: Saturday, Oct. 18
Here’s a full look at our LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction for Saturday’s SEC showdown in Nashville, including team previews and PrizePicks plays.
LSU head coach Brian Kelly made it clear this week that his players understand the challenge of this matchup vs. Vanderbilt.
Commodores head coach Clark Lea’s group already owns a quality road win over then-No. 11 South Carolina, and Vanderbilt has spent six consecutive weeks ranked for the first time in program history.
LSU Preview vs. Vanderbilt
The Tigers are coming off their best defensive performance of the season, holding projected first-round NFL draft pick LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina to just 124 passing yards and an interception — while racking up five sacks. LSU ranks 20th nationally in defensive success rate (36.1), per Game On Paper, and has surrendered just 12.2 points in 2025.
QB Garrett Nussmeier continues to lead LSU offensively, but ball security remains a concern. He threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns last week but also had two turnovers near the goal line. His passing numbers (311.7 yards per game) have also dipped from 2024. The senior gunslinger now sits 45th in that category (235.5). To be fair, the fall-off is mostly due to the Tigers adopting a more balanced approach in 2025.
LSU’s ground game finally showed life in the win over South Carolina, producing a season-high 166 rushing yards behind Caden Durham’s 70-yard effort.
That was a notable improvement for a team that entered last week ranked last in the SEC in rushing (115.0 YPG). Facing a Vanderbilt defense allowing just 99.4 rushing yards per game (15th nationally), Week 8 will be a major test.
The breakout star has been Trey’Dez Green, a 6-foot-7 tight end and former basketball player who posted eight catches for 119 yards and a score last week. Kelly called Green “a mismatch we have to keep feeding,” and it’s hard to argue — Green caught 4 of his 6 contested targets against South Carolina in Week 7, and his 52 yards-after-catch have given Kelly a golden opportunity to open up the offense going forward.
Vanderbilt Preview vs. LSU
Vanderbilt’s five-game winning streak ended at Alabama, but it showed it can hang with top-tier SEC opponents. QB Diego Pavia remains the key. The New Mexico State transfer ranks fourth in the SEC in total offense (293.5 YPG) and has 16 total touchdowns this season. However, he’s already matched his 2023 interception total (4) and turned it over twice in Tuscaloosa, both ending scoring threats.
Clark Lea’s offense is averaging 42.8 points per game (4th nationally) and 7.2 yards per play (3rd), showing more balance on both sides of the field than in years past.
Pavia’s ability to extend plays and make off-platform throws has kept defenses guessing — he’s averaging 5.9 yards per rush as a scrambler, and 352 rushing yards which is just 2nd in the SEC behind Arkansas QB Taylen Green.
Running back Sedrick Alexander headlines the ground attack after breaking out last season. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year and is a tough between-the-tackles runner who complements Pavia’s mobility. Vanderbilt ranks 4th in the country with a 51.4 rushing success rate.
Defensively, Vanderbilt has taken a big step forward. They’re showing how disciplined their front seven has become, ranking 15th nationally against the opposing ball carriers (99.4 rushing yards per game). The Commodores have also held three of their last four opponents under 100 yards on the ground.
LSU vs. Vanderbilt Picks for PrizePicks: Saturday, October 18
This ranked SEC clash offers some great PrizePicks plays on Saturday. We’ll break down the top LSU vs. Vanderbilt picks on PrizePicks based on usage, matchup trends, and efficiency data. Use this analysis to make picks and win real money on PrizePicks this week.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier Projection: 257.5 Pass Yards
- LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has topped 250 yards just two times over his last six starts.
- He ranks 27th in adjusted completion percentage (76.8) this season, per PFF.
- With pass-catching weapons like WR Kyle Parker and Barion Brown in the fold, as well as Green emerging as a legitimate red-zone weapon, Nussmeier yardage total could be bolstered without even having to make deep throws.
- Vanderbilt has allowed 290.7 passing yards per game over its last three contests. which may trigger Kelly's offense to air it out from the opening drive.
- If Vanderbilt’s front limits the run like it did before facing Alabama, the Tigers may need to rely on Nussmeier's arm more than usual to find success.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia vs. LSU Projection: 204.5 Pass Yards
- Pavia has gone over 200 passing yards in three of his six starts and averages 8.8 yards per attempt.
- LSU has allowed 210.2 passing yards per game this season, though it did hold South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers under 130 yards in Week 7.
- If Vanderbilt falls behind, Pavia’s dual-threat ability and extended play tendencies could help him reach this mark late.
- LSU’s defense is tied for 29th in the nation in defensive success rate against the pass (38.0), so it could wind up being a balanced dual-threat game for Pavia.
LSU TE Trey’Dez Green vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 52.5 Receiving Yards
- LSU TE Trey'Dez Green broke out last week, and his 52 YAC were 3rd nationally among TEs in Week 7, per PFF.
- His mismatch potential, especially against smaller defenders (which is pretty much all the time), has played extremely well into LSU’s balanced offense has improved the team turnover ratio from -3 in 2024 to +2 thus far in the 2025 campaign.
- Vanderbilt has allowed 249.6 passing yards per game (97th nationally), so this will be a great chance to repeat his connection with Nussmeier.
- Green’s trust from his QB1 is clear — his 11 targets were 3rd-highest among the nation’s TEs last week.
Make LSU vs. Vanderbilt Picks on PrizePicks
This SEC matchup features two teams trending upward — LSU finding its rhythm after early offensive miscues, and Vanderbilt looking to prove it belongs among the league’s best. This game can make or break both teams' shot at the SEC Championship game.
LSU’s speed and mismatch potential give it the edge, but the Commodores’ defense is stout enough to make this competitive deep into the second half.
With PrizePicks, you can turn your predictions into real-money wins — just pick players, predict More or Less on their stat lines, and cash in when your calls hit.
