The last thing the Cincinnati Bengals wanted to do was lose their $275 million QB after starting the season 2-0 – but it's happened. QB Joe Burrow will undergo surgery to repair a turf toe injury he suffered in Week 2.
Burrow is set to miss three months — most of the regular season — for the third time in six seasons.
Turf toe is described as “a sprain of the main joint of the big toe.” Burrow needing help getting to the locker room and the aftermath where he was on crutches gave the team all they needed to know about his injury status. QB Jake Browning may have led the team to a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but his work has just begun.
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Joe Burrow Injury Update
The team decided that surgery was the best option for Burrow moving forward. This continues an unlucky stretch for Burrow — the 2020 No. 1 overall pick — has already won the NFL Comeback Player of the Award on two occasions.
Currently, three months is his timeline to return from the surgery, which means Mid-December seems to be when Burrow could return to action. Knowing that timeframe, he could come back for the team’s final 3-5 games.
Now, the Bengals will turn to Jake Browning, who started in seven games in 2023, going and impressive 4-3. So, can Browning keep the Bengals in playoff contention with Burrow out for an extended period of time?
What to Expect from Jake Browning
If you look past the 3 interceptions from Browning, the Bengals may stay in good shape with Browning. While the 29-year-old threw three INTs vs. a less-than-stellar Jaguars defense, he did add 2 TDs while leading the team to victory.
Looking at other starting QBs in the league, Rich Eisen believes Browning is better than 1/3 of them.
Browning — who is 4-3 in his Bengals starts — did find success in his previous seven starts for a Bengals team that relies on the pass game. He had four games with 250+ passing yards, including two games over 300.
Though he through 3 INTs in Week 2 vs. the Jaguars on 3 turnover-worthy plays, in half of his games in 2023, Browning has 0 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Even his 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate in Week 2 ranks better than Trevor Lawrence, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones this season. Of course, he needs to clean it up if the Bengals want to stay in contention before Burrow returns.
How Joe Burrow’s Injury Impacts Fantasy Football
At this point, there’s no need to get crazy and release Burrow in fantasy football if you have an IR spot available, as he could return sooner than December, though most sources believe he’ll be out for the full three months.
The 2-0 Bengals have a brutal upcoming schedule for Browning: @ Vikings (#2 in dropback EPA), @ Broncos, vs. Lions, @ Packers, vs. Steelers, and vs. Jets. Not exactly ideal for a back-upQB.
Browning may be able to get this team a few wins, but he isn’t going to set the world on fire as part of your fantasy lineup.
According to Yahoo, Geno Smith is only 32% rostered. Four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is rostered in just 27% of leagues. Even further down the list is Daniel Jones who’s rostered just 20%. All three are likely more reliable than Browning, especially considering his schedule.
Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase & Tee Higgins: Fantasy Football Outlook
While it was only one game, WR Ja’Marr Chase hauled in 14 of his 16 Week 2 targets. Burrow’s right-hand man finished with 165 yards and a TD, despite Burrow being taken to the locker room early.
That said, Chase’s numbers have always seen a sharp decrease when Burrow isn’t his QB. When Browning started 7 games in 2023, Chase averaged just 64 yards with 4.8 receptions per game in six games. He only had 1 TD in that stretch.
It's obvious that Chase doesn't possess the same upside week-to-week without Burrow — and even when he does peak, the peaks won't be as high, even though he still is a WR1 in fantasy football.
Higgins was targeted 8 times in Week 2, finishing with 3 receptions for 56 yards and 1 TD in Week 2. No other Bengals receiver had more than 13 receiving yards. It’s worth noting Higgins had one more touchdown than Chase did with Browning as QB1 in 2023.
Other than Tee Higgins and Chase, there’s little to no value in looking at any of the Bengals' other receivers.
The good news for Bengals WRs? Even in 2023, when they played half the season without their star QB, the Bengals still ranked second in pass-rate over expectation on the season – they're gonna throw the ball regardless of who is under-center.
Ja'Marr Chase Projections vs. Vikings
Here are the projections for Ja'Marr Chase vs. the Vikings for Week 3, via the PrizePicks NFL real money game.
- 81.5 Receiving Yards
- Averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game with Browning in 2023
- 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs (Demon)
- 1 TD in 6 games with Browning in 2023
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Tee Higgins Projections vs. Vikings
Here are the projections for Tee Higgins vs. the Vikings for Week 3, via the PrizePicks NFL real money game.
- 56.5 Receiving Yards
- Averaged 65.6 receiving yards per game with Browning in 2023
- 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs (Demon)
- 3 TD in 5 games with Browning in 2023
RB Chase Brown: Fantasy Football Outlook
RB Chase Brown had all but one of the team’s carries in Week 2, showing that he is clearly the bellcow in Cincinnati. In Week 1, he had all but two. His season totals currently sit at 37 carries for 90 yards and a TD.
Brown is still waiting for his first explosive play of the season, as his longest run is currently just 11 yards. It's not especially surprising, considering he only had 10 runs of 15+ yards in 2024.
With only two receptions in each game, Brown is also being held back in PPR leagues. The decision to change the game plan is head-scratching as Brown finished with 54 receptions last year, the fifth-most of any RB. He averaged 5.6 receptions per game in the final eight games on 2024.
With Cincinnati’s struggling offensive line — 23rd in pass block grade, 30th in run block grade, per PFF, Browning may have to check down quite often, which could get Brown’s number back in the right direction.
However, that did not look to be the case in his first snaps vs. Jacksonville, which is cause for concern.\
No Burrow is a huge blow for the 2-0 Bengals, but with the weapons around him, backup QB Jake Browning may be able to keep the team afloat until he gets back.
Do you think it all works out for the Bengals? Or will they crash and burn, even after startin 2-0?
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