Saturday night’s college football card concludes in Palo Alto as the Stanford Cardinal (2-4) welcome the Florida State Seminoles (3-3) to Stanford Stadium for the first time.
Florida State has hit the skids since a 3-0 start, which included a 31-17 upset of Alabama in the season opener. The Seminoles have dropped three consecutive games, all to ACC opponents. Meanwhile, Stanford has begun 1-2 inside the league, which includes a pair of losses by 24 points or more.
Let’s dive into this Florida State vs. Stanford prediction for this ACC battle, kicking off at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN this Saturday.
Florida State vs. Stanford Prediction, Preview for Week 8
The Seminoles shocked the college football world with their upset of Alabama following an uncharacteristic 2-10 season in 2024. However, FSU’s 3-0 start has gone by the wayside with losses to Virginia, Miami, and Pittsburgh in the past three games.
Stanford posted a 2-6 record in its first season in the ACC in 2024, capped off by a home upset of Louisville. The Cardinal brought in Frank Reich as their head coach this season to turn things around. But Stanford’s two victories are against Boston College and San Jose State, who are a combined 3-9.
Florida State Seminoles
- The Seminoles have performed well offensively, putting together the 18th-best Net EPA/Play in the country.
- FSU scored 77 points against East Texas A&M and 66 points against Kent State, which has bolstered their offensive numbers.
- In the four other games, Mike Norvell’s team is averaging 30.5 points per game. Three of those opponents rank in the top-45 of the country in defensive EPA/play, as they face a Stanford squad that sits 101st in this category.
Stanford Cardinal
- Stanford’s offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 120th in Net EPA/play and 125th in offense success.
- QB Ben Gulbranson’s top two passing grades this season according to PFF have come at home. Gulbranson put up grades of 80 or higher against San Jose State and Boston College, but finished at 73 or worse in the four games away from Palo Alto.
- The Cardinal doesn’t rank well in most advanced metrics, with the most positive ranking being 55th in EPA/rush.
Florida State vs. Stanford Picks & CFB DFS
Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos Projection: 231.5 Passing Yards
- In FSU’s biggest win of the season against Alabama, Castellanos threw for his fewest yards (152), even though he completed a 64-yard pass.
- The former Boston College signal caller has compiled at least 232 passing yards in four of the last five games.
- Castellanos hasn’t racked up a lot of passing attempts in their wins, staying below 14 three times. In FSU’s losses, the senior has put up 32, 45, and 23 passing attempts.
- In three of the last four games, Stanford’s pass defense has been torched, giving up at least 333 passing yards to Boston College, Virginia, and San Jose State.
Stanford RB Micah Ford Projection: 43.5 Rushing Yards
- Ford has already eclipsed his rushing output from his freshman season. The New Jersey native has put up 400 rushing yards following a 309-yard campaign in 2024.
- The sophomore busted the 100-yard rushing mark in two of the first three games against Hawaii and Boston College. However, Ford has been limited to 44 or fewer yards three times this season.
- Florida State’s defense is 60th in EPA/rush, but have allowed five players in ACC play to run for at least 44 yards.
- In five of seven career home games, Ford has been held to 31 or less rushing yards.
Stanford WR C.J. Williams Projection: 69.5 Receiving Yards
- Williams could never find his stride in his first two stops at USC and Wisconsin, but owns a career-high 35 catches and 404 yards in his senior season at Stanford.
- In the first three games of the season, Williams put up a pedestrian 61 yards. In the past three games, he has been one of the top receivers in the country, averaging 114 yards a game.
- Somehow Williams has blown up in spite of the fact that Stanford is 116th in the country in EPA/pass.
- FSU has allowed three 100-yard receivers this season, including each of the last two games against Miami and Pittsburgh.
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Both Florida State and Stanford try to get on track in Palo Alto on Saturday night. Can the Seminoles snap their three-game skid or will the Cardinal grab their second ACC victory?
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