Week 17 begins with a three-game Christmas Day slate, kicking off with the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and Washington Commanders (4-11) at 1:00 p.m. ET on Netflix. The NFC East rivals previously met in Week 7, as the Cowboys rolled to a 44-22 win.
Ahead of Thursday’s clash, Dallas’ postseason hopes are officially extinguished, partially thanks to a three-game losing streak. Washington appears to be in full tank mode with a 1-9 record over its previous 10 games. Which team will get bragging rights as the other boosts its 2026 NFL Draft pick?
Utilizing PrizePicks Team Picks, let’s make a Cowboys vs. Commanders over/under prediction for the NFL’s Christmas slate.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Spread, Over/Under
Dallas is a heavy 7.5-point favorite, rewarding a 2x payout with a cover. PrizePicks Team Picks features a 3.44x payout for the Commanders to win outright.
Thursday’s healthy 51.5 total implies a potentially healthy scoring environment.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cowboys 1.26x | Commanders 3.44x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under Pick for NFL Christmas Day Game
Let's dive into the over/under for Thursday's Christmas matchup between Dallas and Washington.
The Cowboys’ offense has enjoyed a stellar season, totaling 28.3 points per game (fifth), 6.0 yards per play (fourth), and 0.08 EPA per play (tied for seventh), via Sumer Sports.
Dallas QB Dak Prescott ranks second in the NFL with 4,175 passing yards. RB Javonte Williams has 1,147 rushing yards, and WRs George Pickens (89.5) and CeeDee Lamb (85.6) are each totaling over 80.0 receiving yards per outing.
The Commanders’ defense allows 26.9 PPG (27th) and 6.1 yards per play (31st). Dallas is capable of attacking in a variety of ways, proven by its 7.6 yards per pass (eighth) and 4.6 yards per rush (10th). High-scoring affairs are a constant trend for the Cowboys, as their over is 10-4-1. Week 7's meeting smashed its 55.5 total.
A lack of defense plays a part in Dallas’ over trend. The defense surrenders 30.3 points per game (31st), 6.1 yards per play (30th), and 0.16 EPA per play (32nd).
Since Week 13, the over is 3-1 for the Commanders. Washington is averaging 18.3 PPG in the four-game split, but this is deceptive due to Week 14’s 0-point showing. The Commanders logged 24.3 points per contest over Week 13, 15, and 16.
Washington QB Jayden Daniels has played in only seven games, leading to a 48.2% rush-play rate (fifth). It’s an efficient attack for D.C., yielding 4.7 yards per carry (seventh) and 0.02 EPA per rush (T-sixth). Dallas gives up 4.5 yards per carry (25th), and DT Quinnen Williams (concussion) is questionable. The Pro Bowl DT has a 90.8 rush defense grade on Pro Football Focus.
Commanders QB Marcus Mariota, who has reached 40 rushing yards in two of the past four games, is out. Backup Josh Johnson will start in his place.
Make Cowboys vs. Commanders Picks on PrizePicks
Two struggling defenses meet in this Cowboys-Commanders clash. Paired with each offense enjoying recent success, a positive scoring environment may be in the cards. That suggests plenty of opportunities for player projections at PrizePicks, too.
Just pick players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn real money if you’re right.
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