Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction, Thanksgiving Game Picks: Patrick Mahomes, More

The middle matchup on Thanksgiving Day is riddled with storylines and playoff implications, as the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) visit the surging Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1).

The three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs aren’t dead yet, as they saved their season with a 23-20 overtime victory over the AFC South-leading Colts last Sunday. Kansas City remains above the .500 mark and improved to 5-1 at home but need some of that magic on the road, where they own a 1-4 record.

Dallas’ playoff hopes are still alive following a pair of victories in a six-day span over Las Vegas and Philadelphia. The Cowboys erased a 21-0 deficit last Sunday to stun the reigning champion Eagles, 24-21.

Let’s look at a Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction and picks for Thursday afternoon’s showdown at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Use PrizePicks to make picks on projections for this Thanksgiving showdown.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction, Preview for Thanksgiving Day

The Cowboys seek their fourth consecutive victory on Thanksgiving, while the Chiefs are visiting Dallas on Turkey Day for the first time since 1995.

The Chiefs enter this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Cowboys are home underdogs with a 2.43x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

• Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
• Total: 54.5
• Game Winner Payout: Chiefs 1.51x | Cowboys 2.43x

Here are some stats to know to get you set for Chiefs vs. Cowboys.

• Kansas City fell behind Indianapolis last Sunday, 20-9, before rallying to improve to 1-5 in one-score games. They were 12-0 in them last season. 
• In the last six games, K.C. has hit the under each time. The Chiefs allowed more than 22 points once in that stretch.
• The Chiefs jumped from 15th in scoring last season to ninth in 2025 at 25.2 points per game.
• The Cowboys allowed 30.7 PPG in the first nine contests, compared to 18.5 PPG in the last two.
• Offensively, Dallas continues to light things up, averaging 29.1 PPG overall with 40+ points at home thrice.
• Two of the NFL’s top three passers, from a yardage standpoint, take the field. Behind New England’s Drake Maye, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,977 yards and Dallas QB Dak Prescott has amassed 2,941 yards.
• All three of Prescott’s 300+ yard passing performances have come at Jerry World, capped off by his 354-yard output in the comeback against Philadelphia.
• These teams last met in 2021 in Kansas City, when the Chiefs held off the Cowboys 19-9. Both Mahomes and Prescott threw for fewer than 260 yards. 

Kansas City Chiefs Preview vs. Cowboys

Kansas City is 1-4 against the spread away from Arrowhead Stadium and was favored in all five games.

The Chiefs are 8-1 in their last nine regular-season games against NFC opponents. The only loss in this stretch came to the Eagles in a 20-17 home setback in Week 2.

Kansas City’s defense ranks third at Pro Football Focus in defensive grade for pass coverage against WRs.

Dallas Cowboys Preview vs. Chiefs

Dallas ranks fifth at PFF in offense grade but is the only team in the top 12 in this category not to own a winning record.

The Cowboys have covered the spread in three of four opportunities as an underdog. In their first two instances as a home underdog, Dallas cashed against Green Bay in a Week 4 tie and then Sunday in the miraculous comeback against Philadelphia.

Dallas is fourth in PFF passing grade but sits 24th in rushing grade.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Picks & Week 13 NFL DFS

Here are three top Chiefs vs. Cowboys picks to target on Thursday. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes, Dallas WR George Pickens, and RB Javonte Williams.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Cowboys Projection: 276.5 Passing Yards

• Mahomes is coming off his most productive passing game of 2025, carving up the Colts for 352 yards. It marked only the second 300-yard performance for him this season after three such outputs in 2024.
• In his last five outings, Mahomes averages 292.6 passing yards per game.
• Mahomes places fourth in adjusted EPA/play at 0.259, per rbsdm. It’s quite a jump for the three-time Super Bowl champion, who ranked 10th last season at 0.178. 
• The Cowboys have allowed more than Week 13's Mahomes projected passing total once in the past six games. Philly's Jalen Hurts did it last Sunday, throwing for 289 yards.

Cowboys WR George Pickens vs. Chiefs Projection: 74.5 Receiving Yards

• Pickens is the second player to reach at least 1,000 receiving yards, posting 1,054 so far. Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with 1,313 yards.
• The former University of Georgia star is one of five WRs to post at least a 90+ PFF grade in pass routes. He is tied for fifth in overall grade for offense.
• The last two games showed Pickens’ potential as an elite receiver. He racked up 144 yards on 11 catches against the Raiders, followed by 146 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles. 
• The Chiefs have yielded 76+ yards to an opposing WR four times. All four instances have come away from Kansas City, including a pair of Broncos in Week 11 hauling in at least 80 yards apiece.

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams vs. Chiefs Projection: 68.5 Rushing Yards

• Williams is inching closer to his first 1,000-yard rushing season. Years removed from amassing a career-best 903 yards in his rookie campaign in Denver, he is sitting on 896 yards in Dallas through 11 games.
• The former UNC standout is building consistency in the Dallas backfield, putting up at least 83 rushing yards in each of the last three games.
• In eight of 11 games, Williams has managed at least 69 rushing yards and has bypassed 83 rushing yards in all five home contests.
• In fairness to the Chiefs, they have given up the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game at 97.6. 
• Williams has rushed for at least 85 yards twice against Kansas City in his career, coming back in 2021 and 2023 as a member of the Broncos.

Make NFL Week 13 Picks on PrizePicks

The Chiefs and Cowboys are both in crucial spots to help out their postseason chances, needing a win on Thursday afternoon.

There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every NFL moment than with PrizePicks. Simply pick your players from a wide variety of options, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and win real money if you're right.

Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the NFL season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and NFL DFS Lineups.