Canada has been the most dominant team in the 2026 Winter Olympics, with 24 goals in four games and a +18 goal differential — both best in the tournament.
However, Finland might be Canada's toughest challenge yet, as the Fins are second in goals scored (19). As the Group B winners, the Fins advanced directly to the quarterfinals, where they beat Switzerland, 3-2, in overtime.
The puck will drop on the Canada vs. Finland semifinal game at 10:40 a.m. ET from Milano Santagiulia Ice Arena in Milan, Italy, on Friday morning, live on NBC and streaming on Peacock.
Below, we'll break down our Canada vs. Finland prediction and Olympic hockey picks for Friday’s Canada vs. Finland men's hockey semifinal matchup. The winner will move on to the gold medal game on Sunday.
You can make your Olympic hockey picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, puck lines, and medal winner predictions.
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Canada vs. Finland Prediction, Picks for 2026 Olympic Hockey
In the Olympic quarterfinals, the Canadians saw their first challenge, going to overtime to get a 4-3 win over a gritty Slovakia team. Now, they face a Finland team that will again test them.
The big question that looms over Canada is the status of C Sidney Crosby. The future Hall of Famer — who famously scored the game-winning goal against the USA in the 2010 Olympics — suffered a lower-body injury in the quarterfinal win over Slovakia.
Canada head coach Jon Cooper has not ruled Crosby out vs. Finland, and a decision will be made closer to game time on Friday. The 38-year-old Pittsburgh Penguins star ranks third on Team Canada with 6 points and second with 4 assists.
There is still optimism about possibly playing without Crosby; Canada has the deepest roster in the tournament, led by former Hart Trophy winners, including C Nathan MacKinnon (3 goals, 3 assists) and C Connor McDavid (2 goals, 9 assists), who have each been key in this tournament.
However, it was Nick Suzuki (2 goals, 0 assists) who was recently the hero, keeping Canada’s gold medal hope alive with a game-tying goal late in the third round against Czechia before the overtime winner.
Although it's not as impressive as Canada's, Finland has a long list of skaters with NHL pedigree that can light the lamp.
The Fins have two players with 20 goals in the NHL season: RW Mikko Rantanen and C Sebastian Aho, with Aho leading the team with 3 goals in the Winter Olympics.
They also have some of the best puck distributors in the league, featuring Rantanen’s teammates in Dallas, C Roope Hintz (2 assists) and D Miro Heiskanen (2 goals, 1 assist).
Finland has been perfect (3-0) in the tournament since losing to Slovakia in its opening game, 3-1. However, Canada is a different beast than its previous three opponents — with or without Crosby.
Olympic Hockey: Canada vs. Finland Puck Line, Total, Payouts
Canada enters today's Olympic semifinal game as the clear favorites, returning a 1.2x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Canadians win outright. Canada is also the favorite to win the Olympic hockey gold medal, with a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks.
Finland is the underdog vs. Canada, with a 4x payout if the Fins win.
- Game Winner Payout: Canada 1.2x | Finland 4x
- Puck Line: Canada -1.5 (1.66x payout)
- Total Goals: 5.5 Goals (1.85x payout on Over)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Canada vs. Finland Prediction on Puck Line: Friday, Feb. 20
Here are some stats and facts to help you make your Canada vs. Finland prediction on Friday, February 20, with Canada favored by 1.5 goals, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Canada and Finland previously met in the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off, with Canada winning 5-3.
- Canada’s shooting is the most accurate in the Olympic hockey tournament, with a 14.8% shot rate.
- The Canadians are averaging 6.0 goals per game in the Olympics.
- The Canadians are shutting down opponents’ offensive opportunities, ranking second with 43 slot shots allowed, and just 20.75 shots against per game — a testament to two-way player like Suzuki.
- Finland possesses the best goaltending in the tournament, leading all teams with a .938 save percentage; Canada is not far behind, with a .933 save percentage (third).
Canada vs. Finland Picks for Olympic Hockey Semifinal: Friday, February 20
Here are the top Canada vs. Finland picks to target for Friday, February 20, on PrizePicks for Olympic Hockey. Canada's Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid headline the top player picks in Friday's game; all player stat projections via PrizePicks.
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Canada C Nathan MacKinnon vs. Finland
MacKinnon Projections vs. Finland (via PrizePicks): 1.5 Points, 4.5 SOG, 0.5 Assists (Goblin)
- Nathan MacKinnon has six points (3 goals, 3 assists), good enough for the third-most in the 2026 Winter Olympics.
- MacKinnon has at least one point in every Canada game in this tournament.
- The last time MacKinnon faced Finland was in the 2025 4 Nations Face-off, where he scored two goals in a 5-3 victory.
- The former Hart Trophy winner is currently the only player in the NHL with over 40 goals and assists this season.
- Heading into the Olympic men’s hockey tournament, the former 2013 No. 1 overall pick recorded multiple points in two of his last three NHL games.
Canada C Connor McDavid vs. Finland
McDavid Projections vs. Finland (via PrizePicks): 1.5 Points, 3.5 SOG, 0.5 Assists (All Goblin Projections)
- Connor McDavid leads the Olympic men's hockey tournament with 11 points and 9 assists in just four games.
- McDavid entered the Olympics on a hot streak in NHL, recording a point in five of his last six NHL games, including multiple points in three.
- The Edmonton Oilers' star leads the NHL with 96 points this season.
- McDavid is averaging 12 scoring chance contributions per game — scoring chances and scoring chance set-ups.
- He tallied 16 scoring chance contributions vs. Slovakia in the 4-3 quarterfinal win.
- McDavid also had seven shots on goal in the game vs. Slovakia.
- The last time the 2015 No. 1 overall pick faced Finland was at the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off, where he tallied a goal and an assist in a 5-3 win.
Make Canada Olympic Hockey Picks on PrizePicks
Canada and Finland are two rosters filled with top-tier NHL talent set to clash in the Olympic hockey semifinals. This game isn’t for the gold medal, but it has plenty of exciting storylines, including MacKinnon and McDavid looking to lead the Canadians one step closer to the final.
With two semifinals set for Friday, you can make your Olympic hockey picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct.
With Team Picks, you can make predictions on Olympic hockey winners, puck lines, and medal winners to earn money, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Olympic hockey predictions, picks, and news, all the way through the gold medal game.
