Week 17 presents a rivalry renewed on Christmas Day, although some of the star power has been removed from the Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).
Entering the season, many believed this could be a battle with the AFC West on the line. Instead, Denver is flying high at 12-3, 6-9 Kansas City is out of playoff contention, and QB Patrick Mahomes is out for the year with a knee injury. Can Thursday still bring the heat anyway and warm everyone up on a holiday?
Below, we’ll break down our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction and picks for the NFL Christmas Game. Use PrizePicks NFL to monitor player projections and make picks for real rewards if you’re right.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Thursday marks the 132nd time the Broncos and Chiefs will square off in their illustrious history. Although Denver has won three of the last four, Kansas City still owns a commanding 73-58 series lead.
Injuries could factor into this one in a major way. For the Chiefs, WRs Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton (concussion protocol) didn’t practice early in the week and are now on injured reserve. On the Broncos’ side, the same rang true for TE Nate Adkins (knee) and WR Pat Bryant (concussion).
Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under, Spread
The Broncos enter Thursday’s game as 13.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.08x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Chiefs are home underdogs with a 6.25x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Broncos -13.5
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Game Winner Payout: Broncos 1.08x | Chiefs 6.25x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
- The Broncos are 6-8-1 against the spread this season, with the Chiefs not too far behind them at 5-9-1.
- Dating back to 2020, in AFC West games, Denver owns a 16-17-1 ATS record to Kansas City’s 12-22 mark.
- This year’s Broncos offense is 13th in points and 10th in yards compared to 10th and 19th, respectively, in 2024.
- Defensively, Denver remains dominant, sitting third in both points and yards per drive.
- The Chiefs are 20th in scoring on offense, their worst mark since 2012 when Romeo Crennel was their head coach.
- On the other side of the ball, Kansas City ranks in the top five in scoring for the third year in a row, a testament to DC Steve Spagnuolo.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Christmas Day Game Picks
Here are three Broncos vs. Chiefs Christmas Day Game picks for Week 17. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QB Bo Nix and RBs RJ Harvey and Isiah Pacheco.
Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Chiefs Projection: 230.5 Pass Yards
- Nix’s average passing yards has jumped from 222.1 as a rookie to 240.5 as a sophomore. Dating back to Week 11’s initial matchup with the Chiefs, he’s netted a staggering 296.4 yards per outing.
- The former first-round pick averages 253.0 yards in six career late games, easily the highest among any of his time-based splits.
- According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Broncos have posted football’s highest pass rate over expected (+8.8%) over the last five weeks.
- Since their bye week, the Chiefs rank 25th in dropback EPA allowed, per rbsdm.
Broncos RB RJ Harvey vs. Chiefs Projection: 73.5 Rush + Rec Yards
- Harvey averages 52.5 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. Since being promoted to starter in Week 11, however, that number is up to 79.6.
- Among 48 RBs with 100+ rushes in 2025, 35.04% of Harvey’s carries have gone for first downs. That’s the third-highest mark, via SumerSports.
- The second-rounder is a top-half RB in success rate (48.2%, fourth) and target share (10.2%, 16th) in the last four weeks.
- Per NFL Pro, Harvey has the sixth-most passes caught from a backfield alignment.
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco vs. Broncos Projection: 37.5 Rush Yards
- Despite boasting a career-high 57.8% rushing success rate, Pacheco’s 35.8 yards per game marks a new personal low.
- Pacheco’s 2.75% explosive rush rate is fifth-worst out of any RB with at least 50 carries.
- The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to the RB position this season with 1,106.
- Per SumerSports, Denver’s rush defense is seventh-best (-0.07 EPA/play) outside the red zone. That’s where Pacheco gets most of his work, especially with RB Kareem Hunt healthy.
Make Broncos vs. Chiefs Picks on PrizePicks
When Denver and Kansas City duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Broncos vs. Chiefs Christmas Day picks. The NFL Week 17 slate also leaves the door open for several other player projections and much more.
Just pick players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn real money if you’re right.
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