Thursday Night Football in Week 12 sees the Buffalo Bills (7–3) face the Houston Texans (5–5) on Prime Video (8:15 p.m. ET).
Buffalo is coming off a wild 44–32 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when QB Josh Allen accounted for 6 total TDs and reminded everyone why he remains the planet's most dangerous dual-threat player. Houston, who is struggling to remain in the playoff hunt, returns home chasing its third consecutive win behind QB Davis Mills and perhaps the NFL’s No. 1 defense.
Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Texans prediction and top Thursday Night Football picks to target on PrizePicks for this AFC battle.
Bills vs. Texans Prediction, Picks for TNF
In their win over the Bucs, Allen became the first player in NFL history to reach two career games with 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs.
The Bills’ renewed commitment to motion and up-tempo sequencing may have helped unlock a revived WR Gabe Davis, who was elevated from the practice squad just five days ago. He immediately posted 40 receiving yards.
Houston, however, presents a completely different test. They’ve allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL (258.1), along with the fewest points (16.3), and have the league’s sixth-best turnover margin (+7), per FootballDB.
Even with franchise QB C.J. Stroud ruled out again (concussion), the Texans have stayed competitive with Mills managing the offense efficiently and avoiding high-risk throws.
Mills has been steady, orchestrating consecutive fourth-quarter game-winning drives. With weapons like WR Nico Collins, TE Dalton Schultz and emerging rookie WR Jayden Higgins, Houston has balance that could prevent Buffalo from teeing off.
Buffalo Bills Preview vs. Texans
The Bills continue to lean heavily on Allen’s versatility, and his recent surge helped them win four of their last five. He's tied with Cam Newton for most rushing TDs by a QB ever (75), setting up an opportunity to make history in Week 12.
Buffalo arrives with a top-tier resume — second in offensive EPA/play and fourth in scoring (29.2 PPG) — but injuries to the receiving corps may complicate the picture.
TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Curtis Samuel, and WR Mecole Hardman Jr. have all been ruled out for Thursday Night Football. Perhaps another big opportunity could await for Davis. RB James Cook remains Buffalo’s hinge player, as the team is 6-0 in games where he’s reached the end zone.
The problem with the Bills comes on the defensive side, particularly against the run, where they're 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (153.0).
Houston Texans Preview vs. Bills
Houston’s 2025 identity mirrors the structure that powered last season’s playoff run: defense first, control through leverage, and mistake-free football. Per SumerSports, the Texans rank No. 1 in defensive EPA/play (-0.14). They're third against the run (87.1 YPG) and pass (171.0), cementing them as the league’s most efficient defense through 11 weeks.
The front seven continues to dictate terms. DEs Danielle Hunter (9 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (8 sacks) give Houston a great edge duo. LB Azeez Al-Shaair has elevated the underneath coverage while leading the team in tackles (64). The secondary remains one of Houston’s strengths. CB Derek Stingley Jr. is a true lockdown presence. CB Kamari Lassiter has become the surprise accelerator on the opposite side.
Mills remains the player to watch on the other side of the football. He's produced 3 passing TDs and a rushing TD over the past two weeks.
Around Mills, Collins delivered 92 yards and a TD last week against the Tennessee Titans, Schultz now has three straight games with 6+ catches, and Higgins provides length on the perimeter that complements Houston’s intermediate passing.
The Bills might not need Mills to duke it out with Allen throw-for-throw for 60 minutes. As long as the former Stanford University signal-caller can maintain the effectiveness from his last three appearances, his defense might have his back and keep this game entertaining.
Bills vs. Texans Week 12 Thursday Night Football Picks
Below are three top Bills vs. Texans same-game picks for Thursday Night Football. Josh Allen, Davis Mills, and RB Woody Marks are some PrizePicks player projections to consider.
Bills QB Josh Allen Projection vs. Texans — 33.5 Rushing Yards
- Allen has exceeded 30+ rushing yards in three of his last five games.
- Allen ranks No. 4 among all QBs in Rush EPA (20.78), via SumerSports.
- Allen leads QBs in red-zone rushing attempts (21), per FantasyPros.
- Houston’s defense has allowed its last three opponents — Titans QB Cam Ward (33), Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (35), and Broncos QB Bo Nix (36) — to top 30 rushing yards.
Texans QB Davis Mills Projection vs. Bills — 212.5 Pass Yards
- Mills has averaged 43.0 pass attempts over his last two Texans starts and has thrown for 270+ yards in both outings.
- The Bills allow the ninth-lowest yards per pass in the NFL (6.2), yet Mills posted 7.1 YPA last week against Tennessee.
- Mills now faces a Buffalo defense that sits No. 9 in EPA per pass.
- Buffalo could be finding its groove through the air after holding Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to just 173 yards last week.
Texans RB Woody Marks Projection vs. Bills — 62.5 Rushing Yards
- Marks has led the Texans' backfield with 14.0 carries per game over his last three outings, and he could continue establishing himself as the clear early-down volume option.
- Buffalo ranks second to last in EPA/rush allowed, opening the door for Marks to rack up yardage, even within veteran RB Nick Chubb mixing in.
- Marks has produced a run of 11+ yards in each of his last five appearances, giving Houston a consistent burst element.
- Marks’ rushing production has been noticeably better in the last two games with Mills, and his 18 carries in Week 11 marked his NFL-high.
Thursday Night Football features the league’s reigning MVP, Josh Allen, facing a Texans defense that has punished opposing QBs all season.
With PrizePicks, you can turn these storylines into real-money wins — just pick players, predict More or Less on their stat lines, and cash in if you’re right.
