Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Thursday Night Football Picks Tonight: Tua, 2 More

Coming off a Week 2 blowout victory over the New York Jets, the Buffalo Bills look to secure a second road dub against a Miami Dolphins team trying to dig itself out of a 0-2 hole after a disappointing 33-27 loss to the New England Patriots.

Heading into a Week 3 rumble at Highmark Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), Buffalo QB Josh Allen looks to keep the Bills' momentum going, while his Miami counterpart Tua Tagovailoa shoots to build off his quality Week 2 performance and drag Miami into the win column.

Below, check out three Thursday Night Football player picks for Bills vs. Dolphins, featuring Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa. and a certain Buffalo WR. Pick More or Less on player stat projections to win real money on PrizePicks.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Thursday Night Football Picks Tonight

Buffalo Bills Preview

Much to the joy of the Bills Mafia, Buffalo's finest are looking like true title contenders. Allen barely broke a sweat in their 30-10 victory over the Jets, thanks in large part to Bills RB James Cook’s 132 rushing yards and 2 TDs.

With Allen behind center, the Bills are 7-0 when playing on Thursdays, and will try to keep the streak alive against a Miami D ranked 26th in total defense, allowing  375.5 yards per game.

Miami Dolphins Preview

Tua Tagovailoa was downright atrocious in Week 1 against the Colts — 14-of-23 with 114 yards, a couple of picks, and a frightening 2.7 QBR — but he came back with a vengeance against New England in Week 2, going 26-for-32 with a pair of TD passes and a 42.8 QBR. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get Miami the win, and now they are in a 0-2 hole heading into their daunting Week 3 matchup.

Miami will stare down a Bills D that has been ferocious at getting after the QB, sending Justin Fields into concussion protocol in their Week 2 beatdown of the Jets.

Tagovailoa will be searching for his first win (0-5) in Orchard Park in this pivotal divisional matchup.

Bills QB Josh Allen Projection: 234.5 Pass Yards

Josh Allen has been en fuego this season, racking up 395 passing yards and 4 TDs (2 through the air, 2 on the ground) in Buffalo's epic 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens.

The Bills will shoot to continue their dominance over Miami (12-2 record) and remain unbeaten on Thursday Night Football (7-0) in Week 3’s showdown.

• In Week 1, Josh Allen completed 71.7% of his passes (33-for-46) for 393 yards and 2 passing TDs.
• Josh Allen has dominated the Dolphins in his career, averaging 266.9 passing yards and 2.6 TDs per game.
• Allen has passed for over 300 yards in 4 out of the last 6 meetings against Miami.
• Miami’s secondary has been terrible, giving up 473 passing yards and 3 TDs to New England QB Drake Maye and Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones.
• The Fins might struggle to generate pressure on Allen, with a sack percentage of just 7.14%.
• The Bills have allowed just 2 sacks.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Projection: 34.5 Pass Attempts

History tells us that Tagovailoa has some rough sledding ahead of him — he's just 1-8 against Buffalo in his NFL career and 1-3 on Thursday Night Football.

• In his nine starts against the Bills, Tagovailoa has surpassed 34.5 pass attempts only twice.
• He averages 29.3 pass attempts for 203.3 yards and 1 TD against the Bills D.
• The Alabama product is 22nd in the league in dropbacks (66) and 23rd in the league in pass attempts (55). 
• The 2025 Bills' D has allowed 20.5 pass attempts per game.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir Projection: 42.5 Receiving Yards

In Week 1’s comeback win against Baltimore, Shakir made big play after big play in that fourth quarter for the ages. He was second on the team with 6 receptions on 9 targets for 64 yards.

While the passing game as a whole took a dip in Week 2, this TNF matchup against Miami could be what the doctor ordered for the fourth-year man.

• In Shakir’s last three games against Miami, he’s averaged 5.6 catches on 6 targets for 69.6 yards.
• Last season, Shakir averaged 71 receiving yards per game in losses and 52 yards in wins.
• He surpassed 42.5 receiving yards in 12 of his 18 games, including the playoffs in 2024.
• In Week 1, Shakir led the team with an 82.7% route share (81.4% slot).
• Shakir will be covered by slot corner Jason Marshall Jr., who’s allowed a passer rating of 113.9 and 11.3 yards per reception.

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This Bills vs. Dolphins primetime showdown gives you ample opportunities to flex your fantasy football muscles.

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