Wild Card Weekend is gearing up to be a strong six-game slate, as four contests hold point spreads under four on PrizePicks Team Picks. An AFC collision between the Buffalo Bills (12-5) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) could be one of the top matchups, kicking off Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Buffalo has perhaps the best QB in the playoffs, but Jacksonville is red-hot on an eight-game winning streak, paired with strong team stats.
With that in mind, let's make a Bills vs. Jaguars prediction and picks, featuring PrizePicks’ Wild Card Round player projections.
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Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Jacksonville LT Cole Van Lanen (knee) is the only questionable Jags starter. For the Bills, WR Joshua Palmer (ankle) and LB Shaq Thompson (neck) are questionable, while LB Terrel Bernard (calf) is out. Furthermore, Buffalo DT Jordan Phillips (foot) was placed on injured reserve on Friday.
Since 2021, the Jaguars have a 2-1 record against the Bills. However, Buffalo rolled to a 47-10 win in 2024’s clash.
Bills vs. Jaguars Over/Under, Spread
After covering eight consecutive point spreads, Jacksonville is a 2.5-point favorite at home, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s previous five games, while its 7-3 in the Jags’ last 10. Will the over trend continue for Sunday’s 51.5 total?
Both teams return a 1.85x payout to win on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Game Winner Payout: Bills 1.85x | Jaguars 1.85x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction on Over/Under
Buffalo totals 28.3 points per game (fourth) compared to Jacksonville’s 27.9 (sixth). With two of the league’s best offenses clashing, many anticipate a high-scoring outing. However, the potential pace of this game could point otherwise.
The Bills love to run the rock, proven by a 50.6% rush-play rate (second) and 5.0 yards per carry (second). A heavy dose of rushes has boosted Buffalo to 31.2 seconds per play (the most). According to SumerSports, Jacksonville gives up -0.14 EPA per dropback (third) and -0.05 EPA per rush (tied for 11th).
On the other side of the ball, the Bills’ defense cedes 5.1 YPC (30th) and 6.2 yards per pass (fourth). The Jags are most efficient through the air, with 7.2 yards per attempt (11th) compared to 4.0 yards per rush (27th). Regardless, Jacksonville’s play-calling still leans on the ground, as evidenced by its 44.7% rush-play rate (14th).
Considering Buffalo’s struggles to defend the run, the Jaguars could be even more prone to keeping the ball out of the air. The Bills’ front seven looks as vulnerable as ever.
Two offenses leaning on the ground could lead to a bleeding clock — especially when Buffalo already posts the most seconds per play.
Bills vs. Jaguars Picks for Wild Card Weekend
Bills RB James Cook and Jaguars RB Travis Etienne could lead strong run games, drawing our attention to their projections on PrizePicks.
Bills RB James Cook vs. Jaguars Projection: 78.5 Rushing Yards
- Excluding Week 18’s 2.7% snap share, the NFL’s rushing champion (1,621 yards) averages 100.4 yards per contest.
- Cook reached at least 80 rushing yards in five of his previous six full starts.
- Jacksonville surrenders only 85.6 rushing yards per game (the fewest), but it's 12th in EPA per carry allowed and ranks 31st in ESPN’s run stuff win rate.
- Buffalo boasts the league’s top run block win rate, and Cook posts 5.2 yards per rushing attempt, 18.2 carries per contest, and 4.9 true yards per carry (fifth), per PlayerProfiler.
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Jaguars RB Travis Etienne vs. Bills Projection: 15 Rushing Attempts
- The Jags’ tailback has enjoyed a large workload with a 65.1% snap share (11th) paired with 28.9 team run plays per game (sixth).
- Over the last five games, Etienne carries a 66.0% snap rate while reaching at least 16 rushing attempts in three contests.
- Furthermore, the former Clemson Tiger has racked up 16.3 carries per game over the last 10 appearances.
- A high workload could be in the cards, as the Bills could be without three starters in the front seven and yield the aforementioned third-to-last 5.1 YPC.
Make Bills vs. Jaguars Picks on PrizePicks
Despite the 51.5 total suggesting a shootout, the Bills-Jaguars could feature a slow-paced game due to prevalent rushing attacks. Will Cook and Etienne lead the way in a closely-contested battle?
Make your Bills vs. Jaguars picks on PrizePicks for a chance to earn real-money rewards if you’re right. Just pick players and predict More or Less on their projected stats. You can make picks on the winner, spread, over/under, or futures on teams to make the playoffs on PrizePicks Team Picks — now available in 30 states.
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