With Wild Card Weekend in the books, No. 1 seeds get to play their first postseason games of 2026. For the Denver Broncos, that means hosting the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round.
Saturday’s game (4:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+) sees 12-5 Buffalo hit the road to take on a 14-3 Denver squad that pulled out several clutch regular-season victories. Which side can find a way to triumph on the big stage?
Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Broncos prediction and picks to consider for the NFL Divisional Round. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right.
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Bills vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Saturday marks the 43rd all-time meeting between the Bills and Broncos. Buffalo owns a 24-17-1 series advantage, including a dominant 31-7 drubbing in last year’s Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
As far as injuries are concerned, the Bills are without rookie CB Maxwell Hairston (ankle), S Jordan Poyer (hamstring), and WR Tyrell Shavers (knee), in addition to WR Gabe Davis after he tore his ACL last weekend.
The Broncos, on the other hand, are missing LB Drew Sanders (ankle) and TE Lucas Krull (foot). Former Buffalo WR Elijah Moore was activated from the practice squad.
Bills vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Bills enter Saturday’s game as 2.5-point road underdogs, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Broncos are home favorites with a 1.75x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Broncos -2.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Game Winner Payout: Bills 1.96x | Broncos 1.75x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Bills vs. Broncos Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for Bills vs. Broncos.
- The Bills covered in each of their three games as an underdog this season, going 3-0 against the spread. The Broncos were just 3-4 ATS as home favorites.
- Buffalo boasts one of football’s premier offenses, ranking second and fourth in points and yards per drive, respectively.
- While the other side of the ball is imperfect, it does limit overall production. Buffalo’s No. 28 rush defense is balanced by its top-ranked pass group.
- The Broncos’ offense is nothing special, sitting 19th in per-drive scoring.
- Defense is once again where Denver shines, sitting top-three in total points and yards after being third and seventh in 2024.
Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round Game Picks
Here are three Bills vs. Broncos picks for Saturday’s Divisional Round bout. Some top same-game PrizePicks projections to consider include QBs Josh Allen and Bo Nix and RB James Cook.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Broncos Projection: 209.5 Pass Yards
- Allen averaged 229.3 passing yards per game prior to taking just one snap in Week 18. He then threw for 273 yards vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend.
- Via SumerSports, only three QBs have amassed more total EPA than Allen’s 104.43 this year.
- Denver blitzed at football’s fifth-highest rate during the regular season. Against 11 second-half blitzes in last year’s Wild Card game, Allen went off for 141 yards and a TD.
- Although the Broncos’ pass rush is elite, so is Allen’s ability to evade defenders. Among QBs with 100+ dropbacks, he owns the fourth-lowest pressure rate at 24.9%, also a testament to Buffalo’s offensive line.
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Bills RB James Cook vs. Broncos Projection: 78.5 Rush Yards
- Cook averaged a career-high 95.4 rushing yards during the regular season, only to start the playoffs with a 46-yard showing vs. Jacksonville.
- Per NFL Pro, in the regular season, Cook averaged 2.2 yards before contact on outside runs. Denver is the first team since 2017 to allow a negative mark (-0.1 yards) on such tries.
- The Broncos have surrendered the second-fewest rushing yards to RBs (1,220).
- According to RBSDM, Denver’s 36.3% rush success rate ceded trailed only the Seattle Seahawks (35.8%) for best in the NFL.
Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Bills Projection: 211.5 Pass Yards
- Nix put up 231.2 passing yards per game in the regular season. Against winning teams, that number dropped four yards to 227.2.
- Only Panthers QB Bryce Young had a lower yards per attempt mark (6.3) than Nix’s 6.4 figure this year. Buffalo was the lone regular-season club to not allow 3,000+ passing yards.
- Nix’s 3.7 air yards per pressured completion was the second-worst of any QB since 2018, via NFL Pro. Buffalo’s defense is 12th in pressure rate and fourth in fewest yards per pressured completion.
- The Bills play zone coverage 70.4% of the time. Nix had the 27th-ranked passer rating against zone among 36 QBs with 250+ dropbacks from Weeks 1-18.
Make Bills vs. Broncos Picks on PrizePicks
When Buffalo and Denver duke it out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Bills vs. Broncos Divisional Round picks.
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