The first Monday Night Football matchup of the 2025 NFL season brings us plenty of new faces in the Vikings vs. Bears matchup tonight from Soldier Field in Chicago.
Vikings 2024 first-round QB J.J. McCarthy will debut, and new Bears head coach Ben Johnson will debut a new offense led by last year's No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams.
With an exciting new look for both teams, we’ve got plenty to break down in our Vikings vs. Bears prediction and picks for Monday Night Football in Week 1.
As always, we’ll also include our NFL DFS picks for PrizePicks — the simplest way to win real money with your NFL predictions all season long.
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Vikings vs. Bears Prediction, Preview for Monday Night Football
These two teams are long time rivals in the NFC North, but the Vikings have been getting the best of the matchup in recent years. Since 2020, the Vikings are 8-2 vs. the Bears.
The Bears with their new, much-hyped head coach and offensive system hope they can change that tonight. After the Vikings shocked the league going 14-3 with Sam Darnold (now in Seattle) last year, there are many signs that point to them taking a step back in 2024.
With the game set for historic Soldier Field in Chicago with an electric atmosphere, this may be a tough environment for the new-look Vikings to step into tonight in Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
The Vikings handled the Bears in both games last year; although their second matchup went to OT, the Vikings controlled the majority of the game before the Bears made a 14-point comeback in the fourth quarter, only to lose in OT.
But this is a completely new look Vikings team, primarily with new QB J.J. McCarthy under center, but also with additions on the offensive line: a first-round rookie Donovan Jackon at left guard, an upgrade at center in Ryan Kelly (2nd best pass block grade in 2023, per PFF), Will Fries at right guard, and returning LT Christian Darrisaw (missed 10 games in 2024).
This is undoubtedly a top five offensive line in football now. That’s a huge boost for McCarthy, who will start his career in a brutal environment — on the road vs. a very excited crowd in Chicago on primetime.
The Vikings were one of the heaviest passing teams last year (4.5% pass-rate over expectation — 2nd highest), but with a rookie QB under center and an improved offensive line, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them keep it on the ground as long as they can in this game with Aaron Jones and newly acquired RB Jordan Mason mixing in as well.
The Bears did make some improvements to their run defense — namely adding DT Grady Jarrett — but they ranked 28th in yards per carry in 2024. Whether it’s Jones or Mason, the numbers say that the Vikings should find some success running the ball here.
Chicago Bears Preview
The Bears have high expectations this year, and all the pieces are in place for a huge improvement on offense behind Johnson. Of course, there is 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, but let’s not forget D.J. Moore (four 1,100+ yard receiving seasons between 2019-2023), 2024 first-round rookie WR Rome Odunze, and new first-round TE Colston Loveland.
Even if we do expect the Bears to take a step forward with Johnson, the question becomes, when? If the Lions’ drop off vs. the Packers yesterday (13 points) in their first game without Johnson was any indication, things can change in a hurry.
Last year, Williams found success vs. the Vikings defense in the two games last year, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt and throwing 3 TDs, with no turnovers. Those are impressive numbers vs. a Vikings defense that ranked second in dropback expected points added (EPA) per play (-0.035) in 2024.
The biggest problem for the Bears is an offensive line that ranked 23rd in pressure rate allowed last year and 26th in yards before contact on the ground. That’s not exactly ideal.
Ultimately, this offense will go as Williams goes, especially in a matchup vs. the Vikings defense that was first in rush defense EPA/play that adds Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line.
Even if Ben Johnson plans to keep the ball on the ground, it would be shocking to see the Bears have success on the ground with two middling running backs and an offense that ranked 28th in rush EPA/play last season.
You have to imagine, in this matchup, Johnson draws up a pass-heavy offense that focuses on getting the ball out of his QB’s hands quickly to exploit a Vikings defense that is missing safety Harrison Smith.
Vikings vs. Bears Picks for NFL DFS & PrizePicks
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Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Projection: 9.5 Rec Targets
Rookie QB making his first start in a hostile environment and Jordan Addison (19.4% target share) suspended for the first game of the year leads us to one clear answer: Justin Jefferson.
Even if the Vikings do lean on their ground game here, Jefferson is going to have to be a key part of this offense tonight. He had at least 10 targets in three of his last four games in 2024, with 6+ receptions in five of his last seven.
Jefferson already had a nearly 30% target share last season. He has a path to seeing more than that here. In 11 starts next to TE T.J. Hockenson and Adam Thielen (who has returned to play the slot) in 2022, Jefferson averaged 10.8 targets per game.
Alternative MNF Pick: Justin Jefferson – 6 Receptions or 1.5 Halves with 25+ Receiving Yards
Bears QB Caleb Williams Projection: 1.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs
Note: PrizePicks is running a Monday Night Football promo tonight. Caleb Williams’ passing yards projection is discounted to 183.5 yards (down from 218.5) for his first games of the season. Williams topped that number in both games vs. the Vikings last year.
Williams combined for three TDs vs. the Vikings last year, and with Johnson in the fold, the Bears offense can be expected to have more success here.
Williams threw for 2+ TDs in four of his last seven games last season – and that’s just through the air.
Notably, Williams rushed a total of 10 times in the two games vs. the Vikings last year, showing his ability to scramble when facing Brian Flores’ blitz packages. He also rushed at least 4 times in 7-of-8 games to end 2024.
He didn’t score a rush TD last year, as none of those rushes came inside the 20. But he did have 11 rush TDs in 12 games in his final season at USC.
Although Williams doesn’t always look to run, he is more prone to do just that against the Vikings’ blitz-heavy defense, especially on primetime.
Alternative MNF Pick: Caleb Williams – 23.5 Rush Yards (28.8 rush yards per game in 2024)
Bears K Cairo Santos Projection: 7.5 Fantasy Score
Sure, a kicker pick isn’t the most exciting thing ever, but this one has a lot going for it. First off, Santos hit two field goals in both games vs. the Vikings last season, and missed another.
The Bears also put up 27 points in one of those games, but only kicked one XP as they were chasing the Vikings all game. In a regular game script, Santos should get more chances to tack on more points there too.
And lastly, while we can assume the Bears offense does improve with Johnson, it’s hard to believe they’ll be able to go the length of the field consistently vs. this defense. Ultimately, when the Vikings have to get stops, they have the strength to get off the field and force FG attempts.
Santos was 21-of-25 kicking last season — his 25 attempts were his second lowest across his five years in Chicago, but he’s never played with an offense with the expectations that this team brings into 2025.
Alternative MNF Pick: Cairo Santos – 1.5 FG Made
Make Vikings vs. Bears Picks for MNF on PrizePicks
The first Monday Night Football of the season is set to be fascinating on both sides of the ball in Vikings vs. Bears, and the Soldier Field environment is going to be electric.
J.J. McCarthy gets his first shot at starting in the NFL. On the other side, Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson will go to work with high expectations for this season across the league.
No matter how you think it plays out, you can win real money with your NFL predictions on PrizePicks; just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if your picks are correct. It’s that simple.
It’s time to lock in your Monday Night Football picks; and come back to the Playbook all season long for NFL picks, predictions, and NFL DFS analysis on every game.
