With the top spot in the NFC North on the line, the first Saturday Night Football tilt of 2025 is mammoth, as QB Jordan Love and his Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) visit hated rival Chicago Bears (10-4) and their sophomore QB, Caleb Williams.
The winner of this grudge match — which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX — will hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
As the Monsters of the Midway prep for their clash with the Cheeseheads, let’s check our Packers vs. Bears prediction and picks for Saturday Night Football at PrizePicks.
Packers vs. Bears Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the NFC North race is neck and neck, as Green Bay carries a 1.92x payout to win the division compared to Chicago’s 2x.
Packers vs. Bears Over/Under, Spread
The Bears are 2.5-point favorites at home, offering a 1.96x payout for a cover. PrizePicks Team Picks features the Packers with a 2x payout for an outright compared to Chicago’s 1.75x payout.
- Spread: Chicago Bears -2.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Game Winner Payout: Packers 2x | Bears 1.75x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Packers vs. Bears Prediction, Picks for Saturday Night Football
RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle), WR Christian Watson (chest/shoulder), WR Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), RT Zach Tom (back/knee), DE Kingsley Enagbare (illness), and S Evan Williams (knee) are all questionable for Green Bay.
This comes on the heels of the Packers losing their star DE Micah Parsons, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL last week.
Over in the other locker room, Bears WRs Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle) are officially out, while RB D’Andre Swift (groin), TE Cole Kmet (ankle/knee), and LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin) are questionable.
These injuries could be a blow to both passing attacks. Odunze and Burden are two of the Bears’ four leading receivers, and Kmet carries a 69.5% snap share.
For Green Bay, Watson boasts a 68.8% snap rate, while Wicks racked up a 40.0% snap share in three of the previous four.
The Packers’ secondary gives up only 6.3 yards per passing attempt (third). For their part, Chicago yields 7.5 yards per passing attempt (26th); Sumer Sports ranks the unit 11th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback (-0.03).
Both offenses lean on the run game, as the Bears have compiled a 47.4% rush-play rate (sixth) compared to Green Bay’s 46.8% (ninth). Heavy running attacks can lead to bleeding clocks and fewer possessions, which could benefit Bears head coach Ben Johnson's two-headed monster backfield of Swift and Kyle Monangai.
Packers vs. Bears Picks for Week 16
PrizePicks is offering a wide variety of stat projections for Saturday’s must-see collision. Let’s break down a few projections for the Packers vs. Bears.
Bears RB Kyle Monangai vs. Packers Projection: 44.5 Rushing Yards
Since Swift returned from injury in Week 10, Chicago RB Kyle Monangai managed a 42.9% snap share over the previous six games.
The surprise seventh-round rookie — who ranks fourth in yardage for rookie RBs, just 29 yards behind Las Vegas' highly-touted first-rounder, Ashton Jeanty — earned 13.0 rushing attempts per contest during the span, remaining efficient at 4.1 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Rutgers product sports a per-game average of 53.2 rushing yards since Week 11.
Green Bay gives up only 3.8 yards per carry (fourth) and -0.07 EPA per rushing attempt (tied for seventh), but that didn’t stop Monangai from posting 14 attempts for 57 rushing yards (4.1 yards per carry) in Week 14’s matchup with the Pack.
The Bears’ offensive line is one of football’s best, ranking fourth in run block win rate (via ESPN). This could be an avenue to success, as the Pack sits 22nd in run stuff rate.
Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Bears Projection: 3.5 Receptions
Returning from a broken collarbone in Week 14, Green Bay WR Jayden Reed recorded 47.2% and 65.2% snap shares in his first two games back in action. Concerns of a long ramp-up time could be gone after Reed saw his snaps increase by nearly 20.0% from Week 14 to 15.
Watson and Wicks are questionable for Saturday night, and if they sit it out, Reed could see an increased workload — something that will likely thrill Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur, as Reed totaled just 9 receptions since Week 14.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Bears feature man coverage at the ninth-highest rate. In a small sample size, the former Michigan State Spartan boasts an 84.9 receiving grade when facing man (per Pro Football Focus).
Make Packers vs. Bears Picks on PrizePicks
Before Saturday night’s Black and Blue Division war, make your predictions on PrizePicks for a chance to earn real-money rewards if you’re right. Just pick players and predict More or Less on their projected stats.
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