What do you get when two of football’s very best pass catchers aren’t living up to the hype? A fantasy football dilemma with the playoffs approaching.
A season ago, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson averaged more fantasy production than everyone but Bengals standout Ja’Marr Chase. Texans WR Nico Collins missed five games, but he finished tied for fifth among receivers in per-game scoring. This year, neither Jefferson nor Collins is in the top 15.
The allure of upside keeps both players squarely in the WR1 mix for many, though. As the final stretch of the NFL campaign arrives, perhaps the stars could align for a return to form.
That presents a big-time question: Is Jefferson or Collins a better fantasy play? Let’s break down our Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for NFL Week 11 and pit these WRs against one another.
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Fantasy rankings and 2025 point totals are courtesy of FantasyPros.
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 11: Justin Jefferson or Nico Collins?
Why Start Justin Jefferson?
- Despite ranking fifth in targets with 84, Jefferson is fantasy WR18 on the season with 81.0 points scored.
- Even with an average of 10.7 targets, 6.5 receptions and 81 yards in his last six games, Jefferson is WR19 due to having just one TD.
- Jefferson’s lack of fantasy volume doesn’t stem from a lack of opportunity. According to SumerSports, his 30.55% target share ranks sixth for WRs.
- Per NFL Pro, some of Jefferson’s struggles could stem from the QB position. This season, he averages 12.6 PPR points with J.J. McCarthy under center and 16.3 without him. This trend is absolutely worth monitoring.
- Chicago’s defense is dreadful against WRs from a fantasy perspective, allowing the third-highest point total at 25.7 per game.
- Only the Cowboys (1.78) average more TDs afforded to the WR position than the Bears’ 1.44.
- The Bears rank 21st in opposing EPA/pass at 0.05, per SumerSports.
- Taking it a step further, per Sharp Football Analysis, Chicago allows more yards per play on the road (7.0) than any team. They’re also dead last in explosive plays per game (5).
Justin Jefferson PrizePicks Projections: 69.5 Receiving Yards, 5.5 Receptions
Why Start Nico Collins?
- Collins is fantasy WR24 on the year. He has missed one contest due to injury, however, and is tied for 17th in per-game scoring at 9.2 points.
- Amassing target figures of 10, 11, and 15 in his last three games, Collins has 18 receptions and 238 yards to show for it.
- Collins’ Week 10 targets and yardage totals were his best since Week 4 of last season (a 15-target, 151-yard showing).
- A whopping 31.4% of the Texans’ red-zone passes have gone to Collins, good for 11th in the NFL.
- Even if QB C.J. Stroud misses Week 11, it may not spell doom for Collins. Fill-in Davis Mills was fantasy QB1 in his Week 10 start against the Jaguars, a 36-29 win.
- The fifth-year man is 14th in target share for WRs at 26.28% entering Week 11.
- Tennessee’s defense averages 22.7 points yielded to the WR position, the 10th-highest mark in the sport. They’re sixth in highest average yards (163).
- The Titans’ per-pass defense struggles immensely, sitting 28th in EPA.
Nico Collins PrizePicks Projections: 66.5 Receiving Yards, 22.5 Yards on Longest Reception
Week 11 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Verdict: Start Nico Collins
In many ways, Jefferson and Collins remain close together. They average the exact same yards per route run, for instance, at 2.05. They both still carry high fantasy profiles and are regarded as elite players despite their current-year shortcomings.
Jefferson and Collins each have favorable matchups against bad defenses on Sunday. With that said, questions about the former’s chemistry with his QB indicate that his arrow may not be pointing upward. Collins is receiving the same expected opportunities and may boast a better likelihood of making the most of them.
All of that makes Collins the potentially wiser pick in this Week 11 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
Looking for breakdowns on more Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em clashes for the 2025 season? The Playbook is the best route to season-long NFL analysis.
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