Week 11 has arrived, and we’ve officially hit that strange stretch of the season where the league splits into three distinct lanes: teams chasing playoff spots, teams clinging to .500, and teams quietly shifting their focus to the 2026 NFL Draft class. Every matchup now carries real weight for January football or April's draft board.
San Francisco will get QB Brock Purdy back, while the Cardinals are set for another week of Jacoby Brissett. The Giants will roll with veteran Jameis Winston as their QB carousel continues. With C.J. Stroud out while working through concussion protocol, Davis Mills is lined up for yet another start in Houston.
Tthe Giants, Browns, and Raiders, each sitting at just two wins, are drifting firmly into draft-position mode. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, now 5–4, are in the unfamiliar position of simply trying to stay above .500 and keep their playoff hopes from slipping away. In Baltimore, the Ravens try to keep their push going. A win would drag them right back to the .500 mark and keep them in the AFC hunt.
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NFL Week 11 Predictions & Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks, NFL DFS
Find the top Week 11 predictions, picks, matchups to target, and players to target for NFL Week 11 below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.
Best RB Matchups to Target: Week 11
Panthers RB Rico Dowdle vs. Falcons Defense
Since Week 5, the Falcons' run defense has collapsed, giving up 176.4 rushing yards per game (second-most) and 5.07 yards per carry (sixth-worst). Losing LB Divine Deablo has gutted the middle of their defense, and the front seven hasn’t recovered. This creates an ideal matchup for Rico Dowdle, one of the few bright spots in Carolina’s offense in 2025.
Dowdle has been outstanding in his first full year as the featured back. He ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (788), fifth in rushing TDs (5), fifth in yards per attempt (5.3), and sixth in explosive runs (20). Carolina’s offensive line is also quietly strong in run-blocking: LG Damien Lewis ranks 10th of 80 guards, via Pro Football Focus, and RT Taylor Moton ranks 16th of 77 tackles in run blocking.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Rico Dowdle 86.5 Rushing Yards
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren vs. Bengals Defense
The Bengals' run defense has been a disaster since Week 5, allowing a staggering 191 rushing yards per game, dead last in the NFL. They also give up 5.97 yards per carry (32nd) and rank bottom-five in yards after contact allowed (2.6 per attempt). Opposing RBs are getting to the second level untouched far too often.
Jaylen Warren steps into this matchup playing his most efficient football. He has 11 explosive runs, ranks 21st in the NFL in rushing yards (474) despite splitting work, and is averaging a strong 4.2 yards per carry behind an improving offensive line.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Jaylen Warren 75.5 Rushing Yards
Best WR vs. CB Matchups to Target: Week 11
Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Bills CB Tre’Davious White
Emeka Egbuka is firmly in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, and Week 11 gives him another premium matchup.
The Bills' secondary has been unreliable, and veteran CB Tre’Davious White is no longer playing at an elite level. White is allowing a 102.5 passer rating when targeted and giving up 10.9 yards per reception on the outside. Safety Jordan Poyer, still battling lingering injuries, has also been vulnerable in coverage.
Egbuka is built to shred this type of defense. When targeted, he owns a 112.3 passer rating, averages 16.9 yards per reception (sixth), and already has 677 receiving yards (eighth) and 6 TDs (third). He’s also coming off a dominant performance against the Patriots where he erupted for 115 yards on 6 receptions.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Emeka Egbuka 57.5 Receiving Yards
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson
Despite cycling through multiple QBs this season, Justin Jefferson continues to produce like a superstar. He sits top 10 in receptions (51) and receiving yards (686) and is averaging 13.5 yards per catch, proving to be matchup-proof. Now, he faces a decimated Bears secondary.
CB Tyrique Stevenson is allowing a near 100 passer rating when targeted and is getting torched for 17.9 yards per reception. Fellow outside CB Nahshon Wright hasn’t been much better, giving up 13.5 yards per reception. The secondary is dangerously thin. Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson are on IR, leaving Chicago with one of the weakest CB rooms in the NFL.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Justin Jefferson 71.5 Receiving Yards
Best OL/DL Matchups to Target: Week 11
Jaguars DL vs. Chargers OL
The Jaguars have quietly assembled one of the most complete defensive fronts in the NFL. Former first-round pick Josh Hines-Allen has developed into a force off the edge, ranking sixth in the league with 44 total pressures and second in QB hits (13).
Fellow former top pick Travon Walker continues to show steady improvement, ranking 49th out of 110 DEs in pass-rush efficiency, per PFF. On the interior, veteran Arik Armstead has been a major disruptor, producing 31 pressures and 5 sacks, putting him fourth among all interior linemen.
The Chargers' offensive line is in disarray. Injuries have decimated the unit, beginning with the loss of LT Joe Alt, who’s been replaced by Austin Deculus, the lowest-graded tackle in the NFL by PFF. RG Mekhi Becton has struggled badly as well, surrendering 18 pressures and committing 5 penalties. C Bradley Bozeman has allowed 24 pressures, while RT Bobby Hart has drawn 4 penalties.
This battered line will have its hands full trying to slow down one of the most efficient units in the league.
Packers OL vs. Giants DL
The Packers enter Week 11 with serious concerns up front, as OL Zach Tom and Elgton Jenkins are hurt.
The Giants’ defensive line, meanwhile, has been relentless, led by potential Defensive Rookie of the Year Abdul Carter. He's recorded 33 pressures and 25 hurries, both ranking inside the top 25. Brian Burns remains a nightmare, posting 32 pressures and 10 sacks. DT Dexter Lawrence has 18 pressures and 15 hurries, too.
Green Bay LG Aaron Banks ranks 57th out of 79 guards, per PFF, while RG Jordan Morgan has already surrendered 18 pressures. Interior lineman Sean Rhyan has been shaky in protection, giving up 13 pressures, 1 sack, and 4 penalties.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Jordan Love 229.5 Pass Yards
Best QB Matchups for Week 11
Texans QB Davis Mills vs. Titans Defense
Since Week 4, the Titans' defense has been one of the easiest to attack. They rank 28th in EPA per dropback (SumerSports), and both of their outside corners have been liabilities. Jalen Davis ranks 109th of 112 CBs in coverage, per PFF, while Darrell Baker Jr. sits at 52nd of 112. Both are allowing passer ratings above 110 when targeted.
Davis Mills comes into this matchup off his strongest performance of the season, throwing for 292 yards and 2 TDs last week against a Jaguars secondary that is significantly better than Tennessee’s. Mills has shown he can execute cleanly when he isn’t pressured, and the Titans set up another favorable spot.
With Tennessee's inability to stop perimeter throws or limit yards after catch, Mills enters Week 11 with a path to surpassing his projection again.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Davis Mills 220.5 Passing Yards
Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett vs. 49ers Defense
Since Week 4, the 49ers' defense has fallen apart under the weight of injuries. What used to be a dominant unit has lost its identity, now sitting at 27th in EPA per dropback and unable to generate a consistent pass rush.
In their last five games, the 49ers have allowed four QBs to go over their passing yard projections, with all four surpassing 240 yards. The only outlier was Giants rookie Jaxson Dart, who still managed 191 yards in a game dominated by the run.
Jacoby Brissett has been on a heater, averaging 279.5 passing yards per game this season. With San Francisco struggling to pressure the QB and bleeding production through the air, he walks into Week 11 with one of the cleanest matchups he’ll see all year.
Week 11 PrizePicks Pick: Jacoby Brissett 230.5 Passing Yards
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